Is NBA Ratings Dip a True Sign of Diminished Interest? It’s Complicated

NBA commissioner Adam Silver is well aware the league has potentially serious issues—on the court and on television—but he still sees a fruitful path forward on both fronts. 

Speaking before the Emirates NBA Cup final on Tuesday in Las Vegas won by the Bucks, Silver acknowledged “ratings are down a bit” for the league, part of a double-digit percentage decline that has become one of the key storylines for the league’s still-young season. The audience retreat also applies to the Emirates NBA Cup itself, which concluded without a marquee, large-market team such as the Lakers or Knicks.

The commissioner, however, said the league’s issues on linear television are not unlike many other forms of programming, both in sports and not, and are in the midst of a redefinition as streaming continues to be more dominant.

“We’re almost at the inflection point where people are watching more programming on streaming than they are on traditional television,” Silver said. “And it’s a reason why for our new television deals, which we will enter into next year, every game is going to be available on a streaming service. … It’s going to allow us from a production standpoint to do all kinds of things that you can’t do through traditional television.”

Silver also touted the NBA’s global social media following of more than two billion people, which isn’t measured by traditional television metrics.

“We’re at a point where our social media audience is at the highest of any league and continuing to grow exponentially,” he said. “So [the ratings decline] is not a lack of interest in the game.”

The NBA, of course, is not alone in grappling with these issues as other major winter sports such as the NHL and men’s and women’s college basketball also have seen their early audiences decline by more than 20%. 

Styles of Play

Silver, meanwhile, also reflected on the continual rise of three-point shooting across the league that has reached record-setting levels, but he resisted any suggestion that a reduction in midrange and low-post play is leading to less viewership.

“[The NBA is having] many discussions about the style of basketball,” he said. “[We’re looking] holistically at the skill level on the floor, the diversity of offense, the fan reception to the game—all of the above. I think the game is in a great place. I love watching the games, and I think we have some of the most skilled athletes in the world competing.”

The defending champion Celtics, averaging more than 51 attempted three-pointers per game so far this season, are particularly reflecting the new-look nature of the league. The Warriors and Mavericks recently set a record by collectively making 48 three-pointers in a game.

The wide-angle consideration of the aesthetic appeal of NBA play is somewhat similar to MLB’s self-examination of its on-field product in recent years, which has led to the successful introduction of a pitch clock, larger bases, and a ban on extreme defensive shifts. But Silver said there are no simple answers.

“If I thought there was a … golden at-bat sort of quick fix, I’d put it on the table,” the commissioner said, referring to the much-derided trial balloon recently discussed by MLB. “I don’t think there is one here.”

Other Cup Homes?

Silver, meanwhile, also said future semifinals and championship games for the Emirates NBA Cup may shift from Las Vegas, a potential future expansion locale, to home markets as Amazon Prime Video picks up coverage of the knockout rounds starting next year.

“There has been some interest expressed by teams in playing in the home markets,” he said. “I think I’m not against [it, but] I think the question is, ‘If we want to seriously consider that, how would that work from a scheduling standpoint?’”