History shows that several ingredients lead to a highly rated NBA Finals: big-market teams, marketable superstar players, and a competitive series. Unfortunately, the 2025 NBA Finals between the Pacers and Thunder don’t appear to have any of those ingredients, even with league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in the fold.
Indiana and Oklahoma City are two of the smallest U.S. television markets in the NBA, according to Nielsen. Indianapolis is the 25th-largest market in the country and 23rd of 29 NBA teams (excluding Toronto), while Oklahoma City is 47th in the U.S. and third to last in the league, only ahead of New Orleans and Memphis.
Series between two relatively small markets tend to draw lower ratings. Since 2000, the two lowest-rated championship series, excluding those affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, were in 2003 between the Spurs and New Jersey Nets (9.86 million) and in 2007 between the Spurs and Cavaliers (9.29 million).
San Antonio is the No. 31 market in the country and Cleveland is No. 19. New Jersey isn’t listed, though they get a bite from big markets in New York (No. 1) and Philadelphia (No. 5). There is a reason, however, that the franchise moved to Brooklyn in 2012.
The Thunder and Pacers have both been in the Finals this century, and drew strong ratings, but it helped that their opponents played in large or medium markets that had the league’s biggest names. Indiana faced the Lakers (No. 2 market) with Kobe Bryant and Shaquille O’Neal in 2000 (17.4 million), while the Thunder faced the Heat (No. 18 market) led by LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh in 2012 (16.9 million). Oklahoma City also had Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden at the time.
Gilgeous-Alexander doesn’t have the same viewership pull as those stars, as evidenced by the 5.59 million viewership average of the Thunder’s five-game Western Conference finals series against the Timberwolves, down 17% from last year. The games were also mostly blowouts, as four of five were decided by at least 15 points and three by more than 25 points.
The Pacers aren’t expected to do better. Oklahoma City entered the Minnesota series with -375 odds to win, while the Thunder enter the Finals as -750 favorites, tied for the sixth-most-lopsided Finals when compared with data from Sports Odds History.
The series isn’t expected to be a long one, either. The best odds for an exact series score prediction are for Oklahoma City to win in five games (+225), followed by a Thunder sweep (+290).
Indiana, however, has defied the odds for most of its playoff run, winning consecutive series in which it was not favored and didn’t have home court advantage. The team could make it a series like in 2000, when the Lakers were -800 favorites but the Pacers still stretched the series to six games.
If Indiana can steal one game in Oklahoma City, this series could become significantly more compelling. But based on historical data, the NBA should expect a viewership dip for the 2025 NBA Finals.
