CFP’s 12-Team Debut: How NIL, Realignment Shape the Bracket

The shifting landscape of college sports has its fingerprints all over the first College Football Playoff rankings of the expanded, 12-team era.

Conference realignment and the growth of NIL (name, image, and likeness) were huge factors in shaping the historic reveal and the debut projected Playoff bracket that was released on the same night as the presidential election.

While it’s not surprising to see Oregon, Ohio State, and Georgia as the top three ranked programs, Miami is ranked No. 4 as aggressive NIL spending has no doubt helped the Hurricanes to their 9–0 start. Should they win the ACC, they’ll be in line to nab one of the four first-round byes.

BYU’s move to the Big 12 in 2023 has already paid off, as the Cougars are currently projected to also get a first-round bye as one of the four highest-ranked conference champions, despite being ranked No. 9 overall.

Musical Chairs

There is $116 million up for grabs to distribute to conferences, based on the teams that qualify for the CFP and advance to subsequent rounds. And while the CFP’s top two leaders said the selection committee doesn’t factor in which conferences teams play in, the initial projected bracket shows plenty of disparity:

• Big Ten (4): Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State, Indiana
• SEC (4): Georgia, Texas, Tennessee, Alabama
• ACC (1): Miami
• Big 12 (1): BYU
• Mountain West (1): Boise State
• Independents (1): Notre Dame

The Big Ten and SEC are already set to receive a larger share of CFP revenue than other conferences under the new agreement that will take effect in 2026. It appears they will likely be cashing in earlier, too.

Another FSU Situation?

Last year, in the final season of the four-team CFP, Florida State became the first undefeated Power 5 conference champion to be left out of the Playoff, leading to legal questions from the state’s lawmakers. 

The Seminoles had lost starting quarterback Jordan Travis to a broken leg on Nov. 18, which factored into Florida State’s CFP absence. Moving forward, injuries to key players will likely still play a part in who makes the Playoff.

“If there is a loss due to injury, the committee is going to look at the team’s performance without that player,” CFP executive director Rich Clark said Tuesday night. “Just like they did last year, they’re going to see how a team performs with the loss of a key player, and they’re going to evaluate them on that merit. And if they know that player is not coming back, they know that that’s the team moving forward that they’re going to rank for the future.”