What’s Next for the Mountain West After Pac-12 Expansion

Another round of conference realignment dominoes have begun to fall.

Last week, the Pac-12 announced it would add four schools in 2026—Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State, and Colorado State—from the Mountain West. 

Now, the Mountain West will try to discourage other members from following suit and find replacement schools. But the conference isn’t in the worst position, thanks to a nine-figure financial cushion and a lengthy runway for its next media deal.

After reports began to surface last Wednesday, the conference said its board was meeting to discuss next steps. “The Mountain West has a proud 25-year history and will continue to thrive in the years ahead,” commissioner Gloria Nevarez said in a statement last week.

The Pac-12 needs at least two more football-playing schools to join in order to maintain FBS status, though commissioner Teresa Gould told Front Office Sports the conference is open to more. UNLV, another Mountain West program, has been floated as the next good fit—though there may be issues about the state’s Board of Regents forcing the Pac-12 to also take Nevada. 

Nevarez likely anticipated this very scenario—and, as a result, has set up the conference to receive at least $111 million in exit fees and damage funds.

The Mountain West’s scheduling partnership with the two-member Pac-12 requires the Pac-12 to pay tens of millions for each school it poaches within two years of the agreement’s expiration in 2026. The Pac-12 already owes $43 million to the Mountain West, according to a copy of the agreement obtained by FOS, for taking four schools. (In addition to the funds, the four departing schools are leaving behind $17 million each in exit fees.)

It’s not inconceivable the Pac-12 would be willing to pay up, as it has a reserve of $65 million of its own from its settlement in a lawsuit against departing members. But it would be extremely costly for the conference: A fifth school would bump that fee up to $55 million, and a sixth would raise it to $67.5 million. 

Other conferences, too, could be looking to pick off Mountain West members—and they wouldn’t be forced to pay eight-figure fees.

The Mountain West now has two options: Either add new schools and then renegotiate its media-rights deal, or renegotiate the deal and try to use its terms to entice new members. The conference’s existing package with CBS and Fox pays about $38.7 million a year, according to recent tax returns, and expires in 2026. And this summer, the conference inked a multiyear deal with TNT Sports, which will commence with 14 football games this season.

The Mountain West could, if it wanted, convince schools to stay (at least in the short term) by offering some of that $111 million war chest. It could do the same for potential additions.

Nevarez may look at schools like Conference USA’s New Mexico State, which could be looking to join a stronger non-power conference. It could also offer bids to FCS programs hoping to jump to FBS, like North Dakota State or Sacramento State, which has a small army of local community members looking to send it to the next level. 

“We’ve made it very clear on where we want our institution to be and so we’ll take it from there,” North Dakota State athletic director Matt Larsen said this weekend. But he cautioned: “If those things are played in the public and the media, that’s how those things usually get submarined.”

The conference has plenty of time to add new members and negotiate a new deal for the 2026–2027 season. As long as it doesn’t dawdle too much, and potentially let the Pac-12 surpass it (a mistake the Pac-12 itself made two years ago), it should have no problem surviving into the next era of college sports.