The NFL has an uncanny ability to stay at the forefront of sports fans’ minds. Now, in the dog days of summer, a time usually reserved for baseball and the free-agency rumor mill, the league is taking a meaningful step toward a new media distribution strategy.
The NFL has entered the streaming space with its new mobile-first service, NFL+.
Last week, the league debuted the subscription streaming video service for $4.99 a month or $39.99 annually — as well as NFL+ Premium ($9.99, $79.99).
Both let you stream live local or nationally broadcast regular-season and postseason games, but only on a mobile phone or tablet screen — TV casting will not be available. The new service will also displace live mobile access to the local and prime-time games previously available for free on the Yahoo Sports app.
The headline is splashy. The idea of the NFL “entering the streaming wars” while it holds several media deals worth around $100 billion over the next decade is a compelling turn of events.
But with a mobile only strategy, the league is only testing the waters.
Mobile’s Long Game
The NFL has made moves in this space before. In 2005, the league announced a $600 million deal with Sprint including $200 million for mobile streaming rights.
It was a combination of a little bit of luck and some innovative thinking.
At the time of the deal, streaming on smartphones was not necessarily a thing. The deal allowed Sprint users to primarily listen to games via the NFL mobile app and stream the eight “Thursday Night Football” telecasts on their phones.
Of course, smartphones changed everything for mobile in the time since 2005.
Data from the Pew Research center shows that from the date of the Sprint deal to today, total cell phone adoption in the U.S. has increased by almost 30% on an absolute basis.
- Cell phone penetration 2005: 67%
- Cell phone penetration 2021: 97%
- Smartphone penetration 2011: 35%
- Smartphone penetration 2021: 85%
In 2010, Verizon realized that it could provide a better streaming experience for consumers with 4G technology. It saw the potential in Sprint’s idea and decided to go bigger.
Verizon acquired the rights from Sprint for only a 1.17x multiple on Sprint’s original purchase price. The deal was worth a reported $720 million.
After that, Verizon’s mobile rights evolved to include live games on Sundays, plus prime-time and postseason contests. After adding streaming for NFL games to its Yahoo property, the rights fee increased to a reported $400-$500 million back in 2017.
Then, in 2021, the NFL and Verizon struck a 10-year tech and advertising partnership with a focus on 5G — but mobile streaming rights weren’t included in the deal, creating a proprietary opportunity for the league.
Why Now?
Consumers are constantly evolving in how they consume content, and broadcasters and IP holders alike need to evolve with them. For sports, traditional linear TV is still king, but cable is suffering a steep decline.
- 2011 total U.S. cable households: 110 million
- 2022 total U.S. cable households: 70 million
Many of those households have transitioned to streaming services to replace traditional cable bundles, and the NFL is coming for those cord-cutters. According to The Athletic, approximately 5% of NFL live-game viewership is digital.
According to a study released by Grabyo in 2021, 79% of fans globally would be willing to watch their sports exclusively on streaming services.
But it could be a tough time to launch a new streaming service. The highest U.S. inflation print in 40 years is forcing some consumers to scale back spending — particularly on entertainment.
At the same time, NFL+ will compete with a wide array of services in an already crowded landscape with Peacock, Paramount+, Amazon Prime Video, ESPN+ and YouTube TV all streaming NFL content.
Now What?
Shifting some of the distribution burden off traditional linear cable and onto streaming boosts the league’s relevance and generates more revenue.
On the flip side, the NFL now deals with a fragmented media landscape where fans require a field guide to determine which games appear on a given app, on a given device, or in a given market.
But they’ll be alright — there is simply enough demand to put the NFL on a slew of platforms. NFL games are far and away the most watched programming on television, making up 75 of the top 100 most-watched television programs in 2021.
NFL+ is ultimately a wedge into a potential future where the league owns its distribution.
For now, the league appears satisfied making money hand-over-fist from its various partners.
Personally, I’m sticking with RedZone. I need a lot more value than what’s currently offered on streaming services to get me away from Scott Hanson.
