It was not long ago that social media was abuzz after Mike Conley received the largest contract in NBA history.
Conley, who in 2016 had never made an All-Star team, received a five-year deal worth $153 million. Fast-forward to 2024, and Conley’s $30.6 million average annual value would be good for 65th in the league.
LeBron James, who is entering his 22nd year, will be the first player in NBA history to breach the half-billion-dollar mark in career earnings following this season. But with salaries continuing to rise, driven by exponential increases to media-rights deals, the first player to hit $1 billion across their career is already on the horizon.
How Salaries Are Determined
The maximum NBA salary a player can receive is 35% of the salary cap—often referred to as a supermax deal. Players who have signed the supermax range from three-time MVP Nikola Jokić to three-time All-Star Bradley Beal.
The NBA’s salary cap is determined by the percentage of league revenue assigned to the players in the collective bargaining agreement, which is around 50%. In 2016, the league’s revenue spiked due to a new media-rights deal that was three times as lucrative as its previous one—and it caused the salary cap to increase by 34.5% in one year.
This cap spike gave the 73-win Warriors the opportunity to sign Kevin Durant on a two-year, $54.3 million deal.
The NBA fixed this rule by instituting cap smoothing, which limits the year-over-year increase in salary cap to just 10%. Between 2021 and 2023, the cap increased by the maximum 10%, though this slowed to just 3.36% entering this season.
However, another rule applies. While a max deal is based on a percentage of the salary cap, it can only escalate by a max of 8% every year. That means if a player receives 35% of the cap in the first year of his deal and the cap spikes by 10% entering his second year, his salary can only increase by 8%—even if his salary is slightly below 35% of the cap for that year.
The Billion-Dollar Projection
The top two candidates to theoretically reach the $1 billion career earnings mark are Jayson Tatum and Luka Dončić—and they could do it as soon as the 2035–36 season.
Tatum and Dončić, who were drafted in 2017 and 2018, respectively, share similar qualities in that they are superstar players in their mid-20s and expected to be at the top of the league beyond this decade.
To hit a billion in earnings, both players would have to receive two supermax contracts (Tatum already signed his first in July at $315 million over five years). The second deal would come after each has entered his 30s.
It’s worth mentioning that theoretically, Tatum’s fellow 2017 draft class alumnus De’Aaron Fox could also hit the billion-dollar mark under the same conditions—though he is not on pace for the same career trajectory as the two MVP candidates.
Dončić is losing more than $100 million in guaranteed money following a trade to the Lakers since he is no longer supermax eligible. But he will still hit the $1 billion mark in the same season as long as he continues to sign max deals.
Other than the consistent 10% salary cap increases, other factors could alter the timing of the league’s first billion-dollar players.
Other than the consistent 10% increases, other factors could alter the timing of the league’s first billion-dollar players.
The NBA’s CBA is set to expire by the end of the 2029–30 season, meaning revenue-sharing and cap smoothing could be altered and could affect the projection for maximum salaries. It may be a long shot, but this could even push forward the timeline for a billion-dollar player—if cap smoothing or revenue share favors the players.
Tatum and Dončić may also be convinced to sign shorter deals or take pay cuts to improve the rosters around them, similar to what Jalen Brunson did with the Knicks this offseason.
Regardless of whether it happens during the 2034–2035 season—or whether it’s Dončić, Tatum, or a younger star like Anthony Edwards, Paolo Banchero or Victor Wembanyama—these calculations show the NBA’s first billion-dollar player is coming, and he’s almost certainly already in the league.
