The NBA has faced criticism all season for its declining ratings. But with the postseason starting in less than a week, the league may be rewarded with a gift to counter its detractors: a playoff series between the Lakers and Warriors.
As of April 11, Los Angeles has an 88.9% chance to secure the No. 3 seed, according to Basketball Reference. It would then face the No. 6 seed in the first round, which currently belongs to Golden State.
There is still a lot that can change in the final four days of the regular season—especially considering five teams jockeying for seeds No. 4 to No. 8 are separated by one game (Nuggets, Clippers, Warriors, Grizzlies, and Timberwolves). However, Golden State has the best odds of securing the position (28.7%). Each team has two games remaining.
A Warriors vs. Lakers playoff duel would feature two of the league’s marquee franchises led by its two most famous, albeit aging, stars in Steph Curry and LeBron James. The two have played 28 games against each other in the postseason—but there’s no guarantee that they will face off again before one—or both—calls it a career.
When the two teams played in conference semifinals in 2023, the series drew 7.8 million viewers—the most-watched semis in 27 years.
Both teams also made high-profile midseason acquisitions (Lakers: Luka Dončić, Warriors: Jimmy Butler) that have turned each team into more credible contenders for the championship.
Based on this season’s viewership data, a series between the two teams, even in the first round, would likely draw massive numbers for the NBA. The Christmas Day game between the two teams on ABC drew 7.9 million viewers, the most-watched regular-season game in five years. The Jan. 25 battle between the two West Coast teams on ABC averaged 3.05 million viewers, the second-most-watched non–Christmas Day game this season.
Their final meeting of the year was last Thursday, and it drew 2.5 million viewers on TNT, the second-most-watched game of the regular season on cable (excluding opening day). It was also the only game between the two teams this year when both Dončić and Butler played.
Even if Golden State does not finish in sixth, finishing with the No. 7 seed, which it has a 26.3% chance of receiving, could open the door to a second-round meeting between the two franchises. A lot would have to happen to get there—the Warriors would have to win their first play-in game and win a first-round series without home court advantage—but a semis duel would likely drive even higher viewership numbers for the NBA.
NBA ratings have recovered from a weak start to the season and should end the year at close to equal with last year’s numbers.
