NFL, NCAA Rail Against Prediction Markets: ‘Catastrophic’

The NFL and NCAA remain unready to join in on prediction-markets mania, with executives of both organizations issuing new warnings this week about the lack of regulation on sports event contracts.

The rise of prediction-markets platforms offered by companies including Kalshi and Polymarket has shaken the regulated sports betting industry this year, because their sports event contracts mimic traditional sports betting but can be offered in all 50 states. Kalshi and others have argued in court that there is a technical difference between sports betting and “trading” on sports event contracts, with the idea being that prediction markets are overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, a federal regulator.

Kalshi and Polymarket are on partnership hot streaks: Both have deals with the NHL; Polymarket has an extensive deal with UFC; and CNN and CNBC recently announced Kalshi as their official prediction-markets partner.

The NFL and NCAA still aren’t buying it, however. On Thursday, NFL EVP Jeff Miller issued written testimony to the House Committee on Agriculture expressing “concerns regarding the potential impact of sports-related events contracts on the integrity of our games.”

“We are particularly troubled that several sports-related futures contracts have been launched nationwide, including in jurisdictions where sports betting has not been legalized,” Miller wrote in his comments, first reported in Dustin Gouker’s Substack, “The Closing Line.” 

Miller said sports event contracts lack “safeguards” that regulated sports betting has, including “information-sharing requirements, integrity monitoring, prohibitions on easily manipulated markets, official league data requirements, know-your-customer protocols, and problem gambling resources.”

Miller’s testimony came after NFL commissioner Roger Goodell poured cold water on the idea of the league getting into the prediction-markets business earlier this month.

The NCAA is similarly unenthused about the platforms, issuing new criticism Thursday. 

Last month, the NCAA expressed concern that language on the Kalshi platform was suggesting they had a formal affiliation. It was particularly unhappy with Kalshi using the phrase “outcome verified from NCAA” in connection with event contracts for NCAA games, and it asked Kalshi to change that wording. Kalshi complied—its platform now states that it is “not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the NCAA.”

NCAA president Charlie Baker told Yahoo on Thursday that the current state of prediction markets is not sustainable. He pointed to the fact that DraftKings and FanDuel plan to launch prediction-markets platforms of their own soon, saying they “can’t afford to let those folks dominate all that green space they can’t currently access.”

“It just says this whole thing is going to get worse unless somebody does something about it,” Baker said. “And solving it at the federal level is going to be really challenging because it’s still new and not fully formed. So, I mean, you’re basically talking about no rules, no oversight, no nothing. And that just feels catastrophic to me. Not just for us, but for everybody.”

Kalshi’s Elisabeth Diana hit back at Baker’s comments in a statement to Front Office Sports on behalf of the newly launched Coalition for Prediction Markets, which also includes Crypto.com, Robinhood, Coinbase, and Underdog.

“That’s like saying the stock market has no rules,” she said. “The CFTC’s regulations on abusive or manipulative trading apply to prediction markets just like the SEC’s regulations apply to the stock market. This activity is strictly prohibited by both the CFTC and prediction markets, and we use a variety of tools before, during, and after people trade to prevent illegal trading and bring enforcement action when violations happen.”

Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.