Major League Soccer is following the NHL into prediction markets through a deal with Polymarket, betting that direct engagement and oversight are the best ways to protect integrity.
The entry of MLS into prediction markets comes as most pro sports leagues have remained on the sidelines—the NFL, NBA, and MLB have yet to embrace the industry, whose sports event contracts have garnered controversy (and generated lawsuits) due to their similarity to traditional sports betting. Technically, the deal is between Polymarket and Soccer United Marketing, the commercial arm of MLS. Both Polymarket and Kalshi have already offered event contracts on MLS games during the league’s season, which typically runs from late February to October.
Until now, the NHL was the only major pro league to get into business with prediction markets. In October, it announced that both Polymarket and its primary rival, Kalshi, had become “official partners” of the league. Subsequently, Kalshi reached a separate deal with the Blackhawks while Polymarket has partnered with the Rangers. UFC, a mainstream sports brand with a different structure than traditional leagues—its fighters are independent contractors—has also partnered with Polymarket.
Chris Schlosser, SVP of emerging ventures for MLS, tells Front Office Sports the league has been mulling whether to step into the space since last year.
“We had very senior level conversations with all the major prediction markets,” Schlosser says. “This was a very thoughtful process. It’s not something we snapped our fingers and did a deal on.”
Ultimately, MLS landed in the same place as NHL commissioner Gary Bettman, who said in November that the league determined it was important for fans to know that event contracts are “based on real data,” and that through the agreements, the league can tell the platforms to “take down any contracts we don’t think are appropriate.”
“Our desire really started from an integrity standpoint,” Schlosser tells FOS. “How do we ensure the integrity of matches and competition to the best of our ability? It became clear that the best way to do that was to lean in and partner with these guys to create an integrity framework that we felt was really needed.”
Under the deal, MLS will have some say over what markets are offered. As one example, the league is already working on eliminating markets related to players receiving yellow and red cards, Schlosser says. Other areas the league is wary of include “under” markets on total shots taken in a single game and whether a player will make or miss a penalty kick.
“Anything where you could see one player being able to control it on their own,” he tells FOS.
To monitor compliance, MLS will require third-party oversight from firms like IC360 and Sportradar.
Polymarket will be the “exclusive” prediction-market partner of MLS, the MLS All-Star Game, the MLS Cup, and the Leagues Cup, according to a statement. The exclusivity is tied to marketing—in addition to standard promotions like LED signs in MLS stadiums, the two sides intend to collaborate on digital fan experiences and interactive content that showcase real-time probabilities and fan sentiment.
The deal “only applies to the league,” and it’s not clear if individual teams will be allowed to reach their own separate agreements with other prediction-market platforms. Eventually, MLS intends to label other platforms as “authorized prediction markets,” Schlosser says—such platforms would need to agree to certain integrity principles and to integrity monitoring on MLS markets.
It’s unclear whether individual players will be allowed to make their own endorsement deals with prediction-market platforms, like LIV Golf star Bryson DeChambeau with Kalshi.
Schlosser tells FOS the league is “still working through” those issues and has not issued final guidance to clubs.
Players, coaches, other team staff, league officials, owners, and refs remain prohibited from trading or betting on any soccer-related outcomes, either through prediction markets or traditional sports betting platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel.
“Across the gaming space, we have strict prohibitions there,” Schlosser says. “Whether it’s sports betting, daily fantasy sports, or prediction markets. That’s across the board.”
