• Loading stock data...
Thursday, July 10, 2025

Polymarket Whale Made Huge Late Bets On Josh Allen Winning NFL MVP

In just one hour on Thursday afternoon, Polymarket’s MVP odds for Allen skyrocketed from 53 to 94 percent. 

Josh Allen
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

Josh Allen beating out Lamar Jackson for MVP on Thursday night was a surprise to many NFL fans—but not, apparently, to a well-positioned whale on the futures contract betting site Polymarket.

Over the past week in general and Thursday in particular, one person on the offshore betting exchange spent his time bidding up the price of Allen to win the award, in the face of empirical evidence that suggested Jackson would be the likely winner. In just one hour on Thursday afternoon, the odds for Allen skyrocketed from 53 to 94 percent. 

While Allen closed the regular season as the betting favorite to win MVP, the Polymarket odds shifted when it was revealed that Jackson won first-team All-Pro honors. The two awards are voted on by the same 50 AP voters, and the first-team All-Pro quarterback had gone on to win MVP for the last 11 years. The last time a quarterback beat out the first-team All-Pro QB to win MVP was John Elway in 1987, years before Allen or Jackson was born. Allen is just the third player in NFL history to win the award despite not being first-team All-Pro at his position.

Jackson received 30 first-team All-Pro votes, while Allen got 18 votes and the remaining two went to Joe Burrow. According to voting totals released Thursday night, 27 voters picked Allen as their MVP while 23 ranked Jackson first. Jackson had also won MVP votes from his fellow players and the Pro Football Writers of America. At Thursday night’s NFL Honors, Eagles running back Saquon Barkley won Offensive Player of the Year, with Jackson finishing second and Allen finishing sixth in voting.

On American sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings, NFL awards gambling odds closed weeks ago. However, Polymarket is an unregulated offshore exchange where peers are betting against each other as opposed to the house. 

Over the course of the last month, the Polymarket whale is believed to have bet over $600,000 on Allen to win MVP as Jackson’s All-Pro nod gave him the edge. It’s not clear if the gambler had a supremely fortunate hunch, or somehow had inside information as to what the 50 AP voters collectively decided. 

About $3 million total had been wagered on Allen to win MVP, according to the website, meaning the whale placed a fifth of all bets on the Bills QB.

The NFL, Associated Press, and Polymarket did not immediately respond to requests for comment. 

The AP released the full 50-voter panel on Thursday evening and disclosed how each voter ranked their top five candidates for MVP. Some key findings, according the Associated Press’s Josh Dubow:

  • Nine voters picked Jackson for Offensive Player of the Year and then Allen for MVP.
  • Jackson received 30 votes for first-team All-Pro and 23 voters ranked him first in MVP voting.
  • Allen received 18 votes for first-team All-Pro and 27 voters ranked him first in MVP voting.
  • Jim Miller of SiriusXM ranked Jackson fourth in MVP voting. Every other voter ranked him first or second. (Even if Miller ranked Jackson first, Allen would have won.)

It was not immediately clear which voters split their ballots.

Linkedin
Whatsapp
Copy Link
Link Copied
Link Copied

What to Read

The Florida State Seminoles hosted the Florida Gators at Doak Campbell Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 30, 2024.

Athletic Departments Express Renewed Interest in PE in Wake of House Settlement

Schools now have more expenses—and are looking for creative solutions.
Caster Semenya

Caster Semenya’s Legal Win Could Reopen Fight Against Testosterone Limits

The Olympian champion’s appeal against gender eligibility rules continues.
Gareth Bale
exclusive

Gareth Bale Group Makes New Offer for Cardiff City 

Bale tells Front Office Sports his group has made another bid.
Hall of Fame Open at the International Tennis Hall of Fame, Newport.

Andy Roddick Slams Billionaire Bill Ackman’s Pro Tennis Gambit

“This was the biggest joke I’ve ever watched in professional tennis.”

Featured Today

Jun 28, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh (29) bats during the game between the Texas Rangers and the Seattle Mariners at Globe Life Field.

The Torpedo Bat Business Is Still Going Strong: ‘Here to Stay’

Demand for the oddly shaped bats has stayed strong across the sport.
July 6, 2025

American Celebs Want to Be Sports Owners. Soccer Is Where They Start

As U.S. team prices climb, investors set their sights abroad.
July 5, 2025

Baseball’s Celebrity Row: Behind MLB’s First-Pitch Ritual

Often planned, sometimes spontaneous, the ritual throw is baseball’s celebrity row.
July 4, 2025

3,000 Hot Dogs, $20K in Prizes: Behind the Nathan’s Eating Contest

Nathan’s serves up thousands of hot dogs and $20,000 in prize money.

Betway Parent to Complete U.S. Exodus, Blames Tax Volatility

“Recent regulatory developments” were cited. 
Dec 29, 2024; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Cooper Rush (10) passes the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field.
July 3, 2025

California AG Says Daily Fantasy Sports Are Illegal

The AG rejected arguments that DFS are games of skill, not chance.
Sports are shown on TVs behind a bar as guests enjoy the grand opening of DraftKings Sports & Social in Ohio.
July 7, 2025

California AG Has Declared Daily Fantasy Sports Are Illegal. Now What?

The opinion might spark a broader DFS conversation in the state.
Sponsored

Game On: Portfolio Players Stories, Brought to You by E*TRADE from Morgan Stanley

Dealmaker Jeffrey Kaplan maps the evolution of sports as an asset class
Jun 9, 2025; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Luis Ortiz (45) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Cincinnati Reds at Progressive Field.
July 3, 2025

Guardians Pitcher Luis Ortiz Put on Paid Leave Amid MLB Gambling Probe

Reports say the investigation is tied to gambling.
Jun 19, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard (2) drives to the basket against Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) during the third quarter during game six of the 2025 NBA Finals at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
July 1, 2025

‘Existential Threat’: Underdog Sports Sues to Stop AG’s Fantasy Sports Opinion

The California AG is expected to release his opinion by Thursday.
Mar 15, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Pistons guard Malik Beasley (5) celebrates in the first half against the Oklahoma City Thunder at Little Caesars Arena.
June 30, 2025

Malik Beasley Is Latest Betting-Related Headache for NBA

It’s the third NBA betting scandal in the last year-and-a-half.
Quincy Taylor
June 17, 2025

Several Americans Banned in British Basketball Game-Fixing Scandal

Five former Surrey Scorchers players were hit with lengthy gambling suspensions.