The behemoth of U.S. television is angling to capitalize on its surging popularity even earlier than expected.
The NFL, by far the most-watched programming anywhere in the business, could start discussions on new rights pacts as soon as next year, according to a CNBC report. The league was already a “virtual lock” to exercise an opt-out after the 2029 season in most of its domestic rights deals, but starting talks with networks in 2026 on new pacts would be a full seven years before the 2033 expiration of its current deals with Amazon, CBS, ESPN, Fox, and NBC.
“I think our partners would want to sit down and talk to us at any time, and we continue to dialogue with them. I like that opportunity,” NFL commissioner Roger Goodell said to CNBC. “Obviously, it’s not going to happen this year. But it could happen as early as next year. That could happen.”
An industry source told Front Office Sports that the possibility of earlier talks is one of a series of potential scenarios for the NFL connected to the upcoming contract opt-outs. Goodell and Patriots owner Bob Kraft, the head of the NFL’s media committee, remain in regular contact with all the network and streaming platform heads, in part through events such as the league’s annual meeting and the Sun Valley Conference.
Ultimately, though, all roads point to the league garnering a sizable increase from the more than $10 billion per year it collectively gets in domestic rights, and Goodell is already on record thinking the NFL’s rights are “undervalued.”
“The networks are eventually going to have to pay up,” a source told FOS.
Deal Points
There are plenty of reasons why the NFL would want to push the envelope as soon as possible regarding its domestic media rights, the league’s top revenue source. Thanks in part to Nielsen’s newly introduced Big Data + Panel audience measurement process, the NFL is off to a historic start to the season, and its power to aggregate audiences is reaching unprecedented levels.
After setting a U.S. television record in February with the audience for Super Bowl LIX, the first two weeks of the 2025 regular season hit another viewership milestone, averaging 20.7 million viewers per game. There have been several individual records established within that, particularly the Week 2 Super Bowl rematch between the Eagles and Chiefs that was Fox’s most-watched regular-season Sunday game in network history.
More records are expected as the season continues, particularly with the late-afternoon Thanksgiving game between the Chiefs and Cowboys.
That lofty status, however, is not guaranteed as the entire media business goes through historic levels of disruption amid the growing rise of streaming.
Additional factors at play include the likely arrival of an 18th regular-season game in the NFL schedule, MLB’s own pursuit of a media-rights bonanza in 2028, and a volatile political climate that all lend further support to the NFL locking in an elevated long-term situation for its rights.
Roundball Crux
Perhaps most directly, the NBA’s ability to double its domestic rights fees in $77 billion worth of new deals beginning this year with Amazon, ESPN, and NBC opened plenty of eyes at the NFL—particularly given the NBA’s viewership struggles through much of last season. Those three networks are all NFL rights holders as well.
“That’s the thing that really caught the league’s attention,” a source told FOS.
Added Kosner Media founder and former ESPN executive John Kosner, “The NFL knows it has the most valuable content in the U.S.—sports or otherwise. The league looks at other recent sports media deals, and it feels its rights are already undervalued.”
The recently signed $7.7 billion deal over seven years between UFC and CBS parent Paramount, another NFL rights holder, cut along the same lines.
The NFL’s incumbent rights holders are not required to participate in any discussions outside of the specified opt-out windows, but with massive competition expected for any package that would become available, none are expected to refuse. A league source told FOS that even with the opt-outs exercised, talks could begin in that scenario in 2027, meaning a shift to 2026 is not necessarily as radical as it might first appear.
One executive at a league TV partner, who declined to be named, thinks the story amounts to a “nothing-burger.” But consultant Patrick Crakes, a former infantry officer as well as media executive, believes Goodell is “prepping the battlefield” to opt out early.
“It’s much like The Godfather. The NFL is going to make [its partners] an offer they can’t refuse,” says the former Fox executive.
ESPN, Fox, and Prime declined to comment. NBC and CBS could not be reached.
