Darnold Dilemma: Will QB Breakout Lead Vikings to Ditch Low-Cost Succession?

The Vikings will attempt to win the NFC North on Sunday night to cap off what has been a dominant regular season behind a surprisingly resurgent Sam Darnold. And while Minnesota still has a playoff run ahead, the dilemma of how much it will cost to keep the 27-year-old quarterback is already starting to creep up.

Darnold is playing this season on a one-year, $10 million contract. That’s been great value, as Darnold is having a career year, throwing for 4153 yards, 35 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions through 16 games.

A win against the Lions would give the Vikings the No. 1 seed in the NFC with a 15-2 record, tying a franchise record for most wins in one season. That success will lead to some tough decisions for Minnesota’s front office, which drafted former Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy with the 10th pick in the 2024 NFL Draft.

The Vikings signed Darnold to compete with McCarthy, who tore his meniscus in the preseason. The former Jets draft pick’s deal was one of the cheaper quarterback contracts signed this past spring. Former Vikings signal caller Kirk Cousins got a four-year, $180 million deal from the Falcons, while the Buccaneers re-signed Baker Mayfield to a three-year, $100 million contract. The Cowboys extended Dak Prescott with a $60 million per-year deal and the Packers gave Jordan Love a $55 million salary.

Given last year’s pricey quarterback moves, Darnold will likely be asking for a big raise this offseason. The Vikings will have the option of placing the franchise tag on Darnold, which Over The Cap projects to be just over $41 million for quarterbacks in 2025. That would be another one-year deal, while something more long-term would make the situation with McCarthy even more complicated.

McCarthy will have a salary cap hit of just under $5 million in the second season of his rookie contract. Minnesota receiver Justin Jefferson’s four-year, $140 million extension will also begin to kick in, as the star wideout will have a cap hit of roughly $15 million.