Conference Title Games to Shape CFP Picture: High Stakes, Wild Scenarios

While it’s clear Big Ten and SEC teams are going to fill the majority of slots in the first 12-team College Football Playoff, confusion persists about how the rest of the expanded postseason bracket will be completed.

As a refresher, the final CFP field, which will be announced Sunday, will include:

• The five highest ranked conference champions: First-round byes go to the four highest ranked league winners.
• The next seven highest ranked teams: Seeds 5–8 will host first-round games against Nos. 9–12.

With four teams each from the Big Ten and SEC in the top 11, it’s looking like conference title games in the ACC (No. 17 Clemson–No. 8 SMU), Big 12 (No. 16 Iowa State–No. 15 Arizona State), and Mountain West (No. 20 UNLV–No. 10 Boise State) could be de facto Playoff games themselves, with the winners earning automatic CFP bids, and the losers potentially missing out entirely. All three games should be close ones, as sportsbooks have handicapped them all under one score.

SMU is the highest ranked of those six teams at No. 8, but CFP committee chairman Warde Manuel said Tuesday night that the Mustangs could fall below No. 11 Alabama in the rankings with a loss against Clemson. “Potentially, yes,” he said. “And they can move above teams, as well. Again, it just depends on the outcome of the game.”

That unique format of the 12-team CFP is creating wild scenarios, like Boise State being in a position to potentially earn the No. 3 seed with a win and SMU loss, or miss out on the CFP altogether if it loses to UNLV.

Amid the rankings debates, college athletic directors and coaches have taken to social media to plead their cases—and argue about where their programs should fall.