ACC Braces for Possible CFP Shut Out, Losing Chance at Millions in Payouts

Last year, Notre Dame made $20 million from the College Football Playoff. This year, the entire ACC could end up with its pockets empty.

That’s because the ACC is in danger of not placing a single team in this season’s 12-team Playoff bracket. If unranked Duke upsets No. 17 Virginia on Saturday night in the ACC championship game, it’s highly likely that not a single team from the Power 4 conference will make the CFP, and that two Group of 6 teams will.

There’s $116 million in performance-based CFP revenue distribution up for grabs this season. If the ACC misses out on the CFP, the conference will have no chance to compete for any of that pot.

Conferences (or the individual school, in the case of independent Notre Dame) will receive $4 million for each team that ultimately makes the CFP, with further payouts each round as follows:

• Qualifying for the CFP: $4 million (12 teams)
• Advancing to the quarterfinals: $4 million (8 teams)
• Advancing to the semifinals: $6 million (4 teams)
• Advancing to the national championship game: $6 million (2 teams)

There is no extra monetary prize for winning the CFP, but each school will receive another $3 million to cover its expenses each round.

New this year is a slight shift tied to the CFP’s move to straight seeding: While the four highest-ranked conference champions no longer receive top seeds and first-round byes, they will still earn a guaranteed $8 million for their respective leagues even if they lose their first-round matchup.

If Virginia beats Duke, it will be in line to earn that automatic $8 million payment for the ACC as the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion. If Duke wins, though, the American Conference will be set for the guaranteed $8 million payday with No. 20 Tulane, who beat No. 24 North Texas in Friday’s title game, becoming the fourth-highest-ranked conference champion. 

The Sun Belt Conference is the second Group of 6 league hoping for a Virginia loss, which would send No. 25 James Madison, which beat Troy in Friday’s title game, to the CFP.

Beyond the conference championship chaos, there is still a small chance the CFP selection committee could decide to move No. 12 Miami (the ACC’s highest-ranked team) up high enough in Sunday’s final rankings to give them an at-large bid.

A Power 4 conference missing out entirely on the CFP, and two Group of 6 conference champions making it, is not a development that was ever the intention for the expanded, 12-team format. 

It had been assumed that the Power 4 conference champions would at least be among the five highest-ranked league winners, if not almost always the top four. But last year, the Mountain West’s Boise State was the third-highest-ranked conference champion. The ACC still got two bids, though, in conference winner Clemson and at-large selection SMU. Neither team won its first-round game, so the conference made $8 million in performance bonuses.

Next year, the CFP’s revenue-distribution structure is shifting away from performance bonuses. The SEC and Big Ten will earn 29% each, the ACC 17%, the Big 12 15%, and the Group of 6 conferences collectively 9%.