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On the surface, there’s a rather strong case for the cost of Super Bowl advertising spots to rise this year. The NFL last year enjoyed a banner season with ratings increases across the board, culminating in a record audience of 123.4 million for Super Bowl LVIII.
Amid those viewership boosts, the NFL further established itself as by far the most dominant entity in all of U.S. television, claiming 93 of the top 100 audiences in 2023, regardless of genre.
But as the selling season intensifies for the upcoming Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans, pricing for the title game is remaining steady at about $7 million per 30-second unit, according to multiple reports. That figure is in line with each of the last two Super Bowls, and only slightly higher than the 2022 game, and marks the longest run of stable ad pricing in the nearly six decades of the Super Bowl.
Stagnant State
So what explains the apparent disconnect? Several contributing factors are at play.
- A broader industry malaise: Even with the NFL’s might, there’s no question that the traditional linear television business is in a state of decline on a macro level. The recent advertising up-front market reflected that, with a 2.5% overall market decline this year projected to be followed by a 4.5% drop in 2025. Those decreases are happening as additional marketing dollars are going to streaming instead.
- Social media: The nature of Super Bowl advertising has changed in recent years, with online reveals before the game fundamentally altering when and how those spots are unveiled. In addition to the early distribution, social media has also helped raise consumer expectations surrounding the quality and tenor of Super Bowl ads. As a result, the new paradigm for Super Bowl advertising increasingly requires an extended and multifaceted approach, in turn narrowing the field somewhat for potential buyers.
- Additional buying requirements: Fox will be airing Super Bowl LIX, and not unlike other recent Super Bowl broadcasters, the network is believed to be requiring buyers for the title game to make a similar, or greater, commitment to other network content such as additional NFL games.
- Production costs: Total Super Bowl advertising costs can easily extend well into eight figures once production costs are also added to the acquisition of airtime. That expense, however, is still growing, again in part due to rising fan expectations that in some cases mirror what surrounds a Hollywood blockbuster movie. The hefty outlays, in turn, have led to the growing suggestion of a potential ceiling for the Super Bowl ad units.
“There’s a value ceiling for the most expensive unit cost we’re ever going to pay—there’s only so much higher it could reasonably go,” said an unnamed ad buyer quoted by AdAge.
Super Bowl LIX is scheduled for Feb. 9 at the Caesars Superdome.
