Reports This Month

• How Apple Uses Sports to Pull You Into Their Subscriptions Ecosystem
• Inside the Growing Alliance Between American Private Equity and European Sports
• How VR-Enabled Fitness Goes Mainstream
• How the U.S. Got A New Pro Cricket League

One Big Thing

Soccer is the most popular sport in the world, and the FIFA World Cup — considered by many the pinnacle of global tournaments — captures the attention of most soccer fans once every four years. 

It has the highest awareness of any sporting event, and over 5 billion people from more than 180 nations are expected to tune in from Nov. 20 through Dec. 18.

Ticket sales have already reached over 2.9 million, and around 1.7 million people are expected to attend throughout — and the country will have around 500,000 visitors during some of the busiest days.

It’s going to be expensive, too: According to fintech research firm Conotoxia, the cheapest, most basic 10-day trip for the group stage for two American citizens would cost $6,500 — making it the most expensive World Cup yet.

But Qatar’s preparations for the World Cup have been dogged by controversy, from the original bidding process to several alarming recent developments, all of which have contributed to a decidedly negative public reception thus far.

• FIFA was accused of bribery upon winning the hosting rights for 2022. 
• Since winning the bid, Qatar has racked up multiple public concerns over tracking apps, lack of infrastructure, suboptimal security standards, insufficient accommodation, and disregard for the human rights of LGBT people, migrant workers, and others.
• Early trial runs at stadiums have generated complaints about regulations and limitations surrounding alcohol consumption, celebrations, and other fan behavior.

The timing for all this turbulence is less than ideal, as current geopolitical and macroeconomic environments have created worldwide financial instability and political uncertainty. The consequences and third-order effects might culminate in a different live experience than previous editions.

Qatar 2022 will be one of the most dramatic World Cups in history — no matter what happens on the pitch.

An Unfamiliar Experience

Even though the World Cup’s popularity and relative scarcity make it a highly appealing product and an enticing status symbol, many fans may feel discouraged from going to Qatar — resulting in a much lower draw than the 3.03 million who attended the 2018 FIFA World Cup in another controversial nation, Russia.

From the perspective of traditional, Western, more liberal sports fans, the abovementioned obstacles could be problematic, and some may even have political or personal reasons to boycott the tournament.

That atmosphere raises the entry barrier, limiting the types of fans that will be able to attend. 

“Some reports estimate that 3,000 British people will attend Qatar, but there were 15,000 in Russia in 2018 — that has a profound effect on the crowd, as it will probably look and feel different,” explained Simon Chadwick, Professor of Sport and Geopolitical Economy at SKEMA Business School.

And compared to previous tournaments, where people hung out in fan zones and at local parties, Qatar’s off-field experience may be less enjoyable:

• Changes in the mobility of the crowds generated by high accommodation prices in Qatar will have attendees spending more time commuting and less on the premises.
• Drinking and partying restrictions diminish the nightlife appeal, pushing consumers to be less active during their visit or far less interested in attending.

Nevertheless, Doha’s stadiums and hotels are still expected to be filled.

The World Cup Consumer

There are some insights we can use to construct a proxy of your average World Cup attendee.

• According to Nielsen, 63% of all soccer fans worldwide are males, and 37% are females.
• According to Global Fan Insights from The Football Collective, 66% of millennial soccer fans are interested in attending Qatar — the most of any generation. 
• According to FIFA, international fans from Saudi Arabia, the U.S., Mexico, the UAE, France, England, Argentina, Germany, and Brazil are leading ticket buyers.

“The demo attending Qatar is also likely to be associated with a corporate entity invested in the spectacle or the outcomes of the matches,” said Elias Blahacek: Marketing and Investor Relations Manager at Playmaker Capital.

Due to the diverse challenges for its live consumption, we can expect diminished international demand from a market-share perspective. This World Cup mostly accommodates diehard soccer fans with higher purchase power who live close to the Middle East. 

“High-net-worth individuals from developed economies will probably also contribute heavily to attendance. Coming out of the pandemic, people want to experience live sports, particularly the more glamorous events,” explained David Woodley, President of Playmaker.

The Bright Side

There’s no doubt that Qatar has benefited from sportswashing and has been highly criticized for it — but despite all the controversy surrounding the 2022 World Cup, 73% of internet users plan to follow the tournament, according to data from GWI. 

But once the whistle blows on the first match, people’s attention and the public narrative will likely shift to the competition itself, and fans will be able to enjoy the games.

“The true acid test will happen once the tournament finishes. Will there still be a focus on those concerns, or will we all forget about them? Usually, the critiques dissipate or even disappear when the circus leaves town,” said Chadwick.

Ultimately, this World Cup is an opportunity for Qatar to establish a compelling image of its culture and the value it can bring to the world. The question is whether the country’s restrictive policies and the tournament’s high-profile mishaps will overshadow it all.