This morning, the Big 12’s eight continuing members voted unanimously to invite four schools to join the conference: BYU, Cincinnati, UCF, and Houston. 

BYU will join for the 2023 season, Commissioner Bob Bowlsby told reporters. The other three schools might join by July 1, 2023, but will definitely join by July 1, 2024.

As of publishing, Houston and BYU have formally accepted. Press conferences are scheduled for the other two schools and Big 12 officials later in the afternoon.

The move comes less than two months after Texas and Oklahoma announced they will leave for the SEC in 2025 — which sparked a campaign to save the Big 12, including a media blitzkrieg and a trip to the Texas state senate. 

Clearly, that survival plan also included searching for powerhouse replacements. Bowlsby told reporters it wasn’t about adding just any schools to the conference. “This is about adding members that are additive and that brings the kinds of synergies…that help every last member of our league get better,” he said.

Of course, the four schools have huge financial incentives for joining the Big 12. In 2019-20, the conference distributed between about $36 million and $40.5 million to its 10 member schools, according to tax filings. 

The AAC, the current home to UCF, Cincinnati, and Houston, only provided between $4.4 million and $6.2 million to the three schools, tax filings show.

But initially, the schools will lose some money, too — they’ll have to pay exit fees. The AAC requires schools to give 27 months notice, and charges $10 million, multiple reports have confirmed. If schools want to leave before 27 months, the fee goes up.

BYU plays football independently but the rest of its sports will exit the West Coast Conference, where the exit fee is $500,000 and requires schools to give 12-24 months notice, according to The Athletic.

For now, Big 12 schools may get a smaller cut, given the conference will now have 12 schools instead of 10 when the dust settles. (Texas and Oklahoma must forfeit their conference distributions until they leave in 2025, according to the conference bylaws.) 

Bowlsby previously estimated the Big 12 media revenue would be cut in half without Texas and Oklahoma, with each school losing about $14 million. But will the Big 12’s next media deal with four new major football schools make up for that? That remains to be seen. 

University of Pennsylvania sports finance expert Karen Weaver told FOS it’s possible — but it depends on how much the conference can innovate. If the schools can create a platform that, say, combines easy viewing with sports betting analytics, “then all of the sudden their revenue’s going to change dramatically,” Weaver said.

For the Big 12’s eight remaining schools, it’s worth it for them to keep the conference intact even if they lose distribution revenue by adding four schools. 

Why? Keeping or gaining Power 5 status is on the line.

After all, “Everything is better when you’re in the Power 5,” TCU Chancellor Victor Boschini recently pointed out, “except parking.” 

At the Texas state senate hearing, existing Big 12 university presidents and athletic directors almost seemed more concerned about losing Power 5 status than losing the Big 12. They said it helps everything from athletic department revenue, to recruitment, to marketing the entire school. Not to mention, Power 5 conferences get preferential treatment in the NCAA’s governance structure.

Given all these perks, it’s no surprise Big 12 schools are desperate to keep the conference going.

As for the conference’s new schools, It’s “a huge brand win for them” to join the Big 12, Weaver said. 

The AAC has tried to convince its peers it’s as good as a Power conference, but that clearly wasn’t enough for Houston, UCF, and Cincinnati. AAC Commissioner Mike Aresco released a statement saying in part: “Today’s news confirms what we have said all along regarding our status as a power conference. The irony that three of our schools are being asked to take the place of the two marquee schools which are leaving the Big 12 is not lost on us.”

But during a press conference, Houston president Renu Khator specifically expressed excitement that the school had achieved Power 5 status.

For Cincinnati and UCF in particular, there’s a major football advantage that comes with that brand prowess. Last year, many believed the Bearcats — undefeated until the Peach Bowl — were snubbed when they didn’t receive a bid to the College Football Playoff. Critics suggested the team would have gotten in if they were part of a Power 5 conference.

A similar controversy took place with the Knights in 2017, when the team completed an undefeated season and crowned themselves national champions despite not receiving a CFP bid. The NCAA then awarded UCF a national title alongside Alabama.

Now, with CFP expansion reportedly stalled, these schools have clearly taken their football futures into their own hands.