In a classic Friday news dump, CBS Sports set the sports media world on fire by revealing it had placed Tony Romo on indefinite leave following his July 23 arrest for driving under the influence in Milwaukee.

Early indicators pointed to Romo reclaiming his role as CBS Sports’s No. 1 NFL game analyst. 

In a lucky break for the 46-year-old, his first offense arrest for operating while intoxicated (OWI) will be treated as a civil, not criminal, offense under Wisconsin law. There was also doubt that the conservative CBS would shake up the No. 1 television team only weeks before kickoff of the 2026 NFL season. Lest we forget, CBS just enjoyed its most-watched season, with the former Cowboys quarterback serving as its lead analyst.

And yet, I’ve talked to a growing number of industry sources who are skeptical that Romo will keep his job as CBS’s No. 1 NFL color commentator. Several sources tell Front Office Sports they expect No. 2 NFL game analyst J.J. Watt, whom CBS named Friday as his temporary replacement, could pull a Wally Pipp–like move and eventually take over for Romo on CBS’s top team.

Here are the factors now working against Romo.

Dumping Romo Saves CBS $72 Million

Romo has four years left on the eye-popping 10-year, $180 million deal he signed with CBS in 2020. Like most sports talent, Romo has a “morals clause” in his contract, according to The Athletic. His arrest could give CBS an excuse to try to wriggle out of the last four years of his deal, worth an estimated $72 million, and replace him with the cheaper Watt, who drew rave reviews in his first season calling games last year with play-by-play partner Ian Eagle. If CBS looks outside, Greg Olsen of Fox Sports could be the wild card. The No. 2 analyst behind Tom Brady has already called a Super Bowl and publicly expressed his wish to serve as a network’s No. 1.

By now, millions of people have watched TMZ Sports’s embarrassing policecam footage of Romo failing field sobriety tests. As Dan Le Batard noted Friday, the four-time Pro Bowl quarterback is one of the premier “faces and voices” of the NFL in his role at CBS. The cringe-worthy arrest videos could tarnish the Shield’s gold-plated image—especially with sponsors in corporate America.

“This is going to be fascinating. I think this is their chance to offload him and get out of the deal. Or they could go to him and ask him to redo his deal,” one source tells FOS. “If CBS clips Tony Romo, the whole board changes.”

New President Loves Watt

David Berson took over as president and CEO of CBS Sports in April 2024, succeeding the retiring Sean McManus. But only a year before, Berson personally announced Watt as his first big hire in a press release. After two seasons of getting his feet wet on The NFL Today, Berson bumped Watt up to the network’s No. 2 game analyst, behind Romo.

Translation: Watt is Berson’s guy. And Romo is the old guy’s guy. Network bosses play favorites, like everybody else. Watt has made Berson look good in his first three seasons on the air. Berson could repay the favor by moving him up to the No. 1 chair permanently.

Don’t forget, Watt now has the golden opportunity to develop his own on-air rapport with Jim Nantz and Tracy Wolfson. Network bosses like Berson are remembered for their biggest decisions. McManus took a big gamble when he demoted Phil Simms after 19 seasons as the No. 1 game analyst in 2017 and replaced him with a TV rookie in then-36-year-old Romo. Could Berson similarly make his mark by moving the 37-year-old Watt up to No. 1 with the all-world Nantz? 

“CBS loves J.J.,” says another source. “This is his chance on a silver platter.”

Payback Time? 

Fox’s Colin Cowherd has long been one of the most-plugged-in talents at any network. After Romo was placed under arrest, CBS didn’t reach out to him for two days, Cowherd told Ethan Strauss on his House of Strauss podcast. The Herd host believes there’s lingering resentment among CBS execs for Romo holding them over a barrel in contract negotiations in 2020. 

“There was a moment in time that Tony Romo had tremendous leverage over CBS,” Cowherd said. “And he squeezed them for every nickel.”

As another wild card, you have to wonder whether Paramount Skydance CEO David Ellison will weigh in. This will be one of the first big decisions on his watch.

Cryptic Communications

It’s been mostly silent since Romo’s arrest nearly two weeks ago. The 14-year NFL veteran faces a court hearing Sept. 21 and has yet to make a public statement. CBS waited more than a week before releasing two brief statements Friday. Even those were mysterious enough to raise eyebrows. At first, CBS stated Romo was “on leave” until “further notice.” But it followed that up with another statement saying Watt would join Nantz and Wolfson on the top team “in Tony’s absence.”

Notably, CBS’s first regular-season game is still more than a month away. How long does CBS expect Romo to be on leave? How many games will Watt call in his absence? Nobody’s saying.

Also, I’ve covered plenty of stories involving announcers/athletes involved in worse scandals than this. Typically there’s a flood of public “good wishes” from current and former colleagues. But there’s been radio silence around Romo. The silence from all involved has let speculation fill in the gaps. 

So what happens next? There are several scenarios. Romo could return from leave and reclaim his job. Especially with his powerful former boss, Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, flying air cover with commissioner Roger Goodell on Park Avenue. As ProFootballTalk’s Mike Florio told FOS: “Jerry will do whatever he thinks he needs to do to get the outcome he wants.”

CBS could keep Watt No. 1 and demote Romo. Would Romo accept it?  Simms did, agreeing to move from the broadcast booth with Nantz to The NFL Today studio show in 2017. Worst-case scenario is CBS dumps Romo and tries to void his deal. That could turn into a messy legal battle and keep the story in the headlines.

At this point, there are cases to be made both for and against Romo keeping his job. Despite him facing criticism elsewhere, I wrote earlier this year that I think Romo, Nantz, and Wolfson are a great broadcast team. Clearly, CBS thought enough of his performance—and the ratings success of its NFL broadcasts—that it planned to bring Romo back for what would be his 10th season in the booth. 

But NFL TV can be just as cruel and painful as pro football itself. Former football players turned TV talents like Romo know the Turk comes for almost everybody sooner or later. With rumors continuing that CBS was already unhappy with Romo’s performance, Barstool Sports founder Dave Portnoy is among those who don’t think he’ll get his No. 1 chair back at CBS.

“This decision was made within 0.2 seconds of this incident happening. They were clearly looking for an out. Romo let him through the door,” said Portnoy.

The question now for Romo: Will that door shut for him for good at CBS?

CBS declined to comment beyond its statements regarding Romo’s status.