Major League Baseball could be the next league to formally embrace prediction markets, league commissioner Rob Manfred said Thursday.

Speaking at the conclusion of owners meetings held in Palm Beach, Fla., Manfred said the league is considering striking formal deals with prediction markets, following the lead of others such as the NHL and MLS, to help aid in overall game integrity.

Team owners received a presentation about prediction markets, which are exploding in both popularity and controversy. The session focused significantly on the difference between those markets and traditional betting ones.

“We thought it was important for the owners to be updated on why prediction markets are different than sports betting, why we might want to consider being in business with prediction markets in an effort to protect our integrity, to get the kind of protections we need,” Manfred said.

“The regulatory framework, very different. Obviously state by state on the sports betting side, federal on the other.”

A potential prediction-market partnership would be a major shift for MLB. Late last season, the league issued a memo to players about engaging with baseball event contracts on platforms. The memo, obtained exclusively by Front Office Sports, was titled “Re: Baseball Related Prediction Markets.” It firmly instructed players against “participating in ‘prediction markets’ to risk money on any outcome related to baseball games or events,” framing involvement as a violation of its longstanding sports betting policies.

That ban would remain in place even if a league-level deal emerges, but a similar evolution in traditional betting took years to unfold. 

For months, the NFL and NBA also stood strong in opposition to the industry despite the NHL forging deep ties—first through partnerships in October with both Kalshi and Polymarket, and then with Kalshi reaching a separate deal with the Blackhawks while Polymarket made its own pact with the Rangers.

Now, MLB isn’t the only league weighing whether it would be smart business to get into bed with prediction markets. The NFL, though it maintains there are still significant unanswered regulatory questions, has signaled it could be swayed in the future. “It’s innovative, that marketplace is dynamic,” EVP Jeff Miller told FOS on Radio Row ahead of Super Bowl LX between the Seahawks and Patriots.

As for the NBA, its assistant general counsel wrote a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in May requesting “specific regulatory provisions that can mitigate the associated integrity risks” of prediction markets. But on Friday, the founders of both Kalshi and Polymarket will speak at the NBA All-Star Tech Summit, an exclusive, invite-only event where business leaders from major technology companies give talks. Their appearances come on the heels of an investment into Kalshi from Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo that made waves when it was announced last Friday.

Elsewhere, MLS has embraced prediction markets through a deal with Polymarket, which also has a separate agreement with UFC.

Major League Baseball already had a thorny economic problem heading into this year’s labor negotiations with the MLB Players Association. The ongoing dominance of the two-time defending World Series champion Dodgers complicates that further.

League commissioner Rob Manfred highlighted the two sides of the issue as owners meetings concluded Thursday in Palm Beach, Fla. On one hand, the Dodgers are fully compliant with the current collective bargaining agreement, and their performance has driven widespread fan interest around the globe, thanks in no small part to a star-studded roster led in part by Japanese phenom Shohei Ohtani.

On the other hand, the club’s luxury-tax payroll this season is $401.1 million, and the recent free-agent acquisition of outfielder Kyle Tucker exacerbates an already-growing fiscal divide within the sport, and fan unrest because of that. The Dodgers’ 2026 outlay more than quadruples the comparable figure for the Marlins.

“I think great teams are always good for baseball,” Manfred said Thursday afternoon. “I think, with respect to this particular great team, it added to what we have been hearing from fans in a lot of markets for a long time about the competitiveness of the game. But great teams are always good for baseball.”

The issue will be a central one in what is expected to be a fractious round of labor talks between the league and the union as a management lockout is widely expected. Manfred, however, said there remains no formal start time for those negotiations. The current, five-year pact expires Dec. 1.

“The only projection I can make, because we haven’t agreed on a calendar with the MLBPA, and it does take two to tango, as they say, is that historically after Opening Day, we kind of get started,” Manfred said.

Watching RSNs

The accelerating decline of the regional sports network business, and the resulting revenue impacts, will also be a fundamental factor in those labor talks. All nine of the MLB clubs that had been tied to FanDuel Sports Network parent company Main Street Sports Group have left that operation, with eight of them aligning with MLB’s in-house model for local game production and distribution. The Braves, meanwhile, are instead expected to form their own local media network, similar to what the Rangers have done.

That disruption, however, is creating significant short-term revenue hits for many of the impacted clubs, in some cases reaching into eight figures.

“I think our RSN situation has an impact on our revenue growth because the decline there is, you know, a drag on what is otherwise a growing industry,” Manfred said, alluding to increases in other key metrics such as attendance and national viewership. “It is true that the smaller markets have been hit harder than the larger markets, which impacts revenue-sharing. 

“Having said both of those, I think, longer term, our content is inherently valuable. We deliver tons of eyeballs, and think when we have an opportunity to get to market in 2028, we’re going to be just fine,” he said.

At that point, MLB’s other national media-rights contracts will expire, and Manfred intends then to blend national and local rights in a much more substantial way when negotiating with networks.

Padres Sale

Manfred, meanwhile, expects to see significant activity around the ongoing sale of the Padres, with multiple potential buyers. The Seidler family recently put the franchise up for sale, shortly before settling a legal dispute with Sheel Seidler, the widow of former Padres chairman Peter Seidler. 

The franchise is something of a study in contrasts, as it posted the second-best attendance in the league in 2025, behind only the Dodgers, and has a gem of a home ballpark in Petco Park. The club, however, has incurred significant debt and was the first cut in the bankruptcy of the former Diamond Sports Group (now Main Street Sports), and the Padres’ local rights are part of MLB’s in-house media model.

“The best I can tell you on the Padres is there is robust interest on what is viewed as a really appealing asset,” Manfred said.

More Changes

MLB owners, meanwhile, approved Thursday a rule change mandating that base coaches remain in their designated boxes at all times.

The change comes after coaches have increasingly migrated up and down the baseline, looking to discern patterns from opposing pitchers and communicate their findings to batters and baserunners.

Olympic Distance

The league is still attempting to work out the logistics that would allow MLB players to participate in the 2028 Summer Olympics in Los Angeles. MLB, however, is not currently negotiating with Casey Wasserman, the embattled chair of the LA28 organizing committee, who has appeared in the Epstein files.

“Our dealings are not with Casey,” Manfred said. “Our dealings are with the institution of the Olympics.”