The 2020 Summer Olympic Games were already likely among the single largest casualties of the coronavirus outbreak, but there potentially is even more dire news for the Tokyo event. Should the current pandemic threats persist into next summer, the president of the Tokyo 2020 organizing committee, Yoshiro Mori, told Nikkan Sports a delay to 2022 would not happen and the games would be outright canceled.

Mori noted the Olympic Games have been canceled before during wartime and the world is “fighting against an invisible enemy now.” The Olympics were canceled three times for World War I and World War II.

“This is a gamble by the human race,” Mori said. “If we can hold the Olympics after the world beats the virus, the games will have many times more value than in the past.” The postponement has already added an additional $2.7 billion to the $12.6 billion budget, making it the second-most expensive games in history.

The ultimate economic impact to Japan is still to be determined, according to CNBC. The Japan Times reported canceling the games would result in “economic damage” of $42.1 billion. There’s also the $4.8 billion NBC paid the IOC for the Olympic rights through 2020 and the more than $1 billion in ads sold by NBC. 

The outlook for athletes is equally grim. Following the postponement, the New York Times reported the U.S. Olympic & Paralympic Committee would have to wait another year for the $200 million its athletes rely on for living and training stipends. That’s not counting all the endorsements that have been upended. 

Japan is currently under a month-long state of emergency due to a rapid increase in COVID-19 cases, and according to NBC Sports, a Japanese professor of infectious diseases is “pessimistic” the games could be held in 15 months. 

Meanwhile, other experts have also said both the summer Olympics and the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics could be at the mercy of a vaccine for the coronavirus, which is at least a year away.

Members of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, led by CMS Administrator Seema Verma, held a conference call on Tuesday with representatives from 23 different sports leagues and associations to discuss how expanded testing can help get sports back in business.

According to one anonymous participant who spoke with USA Today, the administration did not relay specific timetables but expressed optimism about infrastructure that would allow sports to resume this summer.

Federalism in Action

Meanwhile, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo named an advisory board of 100 business and community leaders to assist in reopening the state in the coming weeks. Several NY sports executives made the list, including Mets COO Jeff Wilpon, Yankees president Randy Levine, Madison Square Garden CEO James Dolan, Bills partial owner Kim Pegula and Islanders co-owner Jon Ledecky. The state plans to start with manufacturing and construction work in the central part of New York, which has been less affected than New York City.

California Governor Gavin Newsom announced his own four-stage reopening plan on Tuesday, which also eschews specific dates in favor of metrics focused on hospitalization rates and testing. Live sporting events with fans are included under phase four, opening “highest-risk workplaces,” which will only occur after therapeutics have been developed.

France Cancels

France has made the decision to completely cancel the seasons of its top two soccer leagues, Ligue 1 and Ligue 2, while simultaneously announcing plans to reopen the country after weeks of lockdowns. “Big sporting events will not be able to take place before September,” Prime Minister Edouard Philipp said. “The 2019-20 season, notably for football, will not be able to resume.”

The decision ends any hope for a mid-June restart and puts further pressure on the UEFA Champions League tournament, in which Paris Saint-Germain and Lyon were still active. The Champions League still plans to conclude in August. 

Baseball could be back by the Fourth of July. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal ran through different Major League Baseball scenarios, including saying “the most realistic time range for Opening Day” is mid-June to July 4. With that start date in mind, it would allow for an 80 to 100-game schedule, with the season running through October. An expanded postseason at neutral sites could follow as well.

Rosenthal said some club officials are optimistic parks could open up to limited fans in August or September in states where the virus is under control.

While Rosenthal’s report notes “those involved at the sport’s highest level are increasingly confident games will be played in 2020,” it also said the league will keep monitoring the situation to avoid making any mistakes by acting too quickly –  but the league appears to be willing to do what it takes to get the $10.7 billion industry back off the ground.

With that in mind, MLB will allow teams to work with fans on refunds, according to USA Today. Each club has postponed approximately 20% of its home games because of the coronavirus, and if teams do end up issuing refunds, they’d be the first North American league to do so.

Another five-star basketball recruit has decided to head to the new G League development program. The league announced point guard Daishen Nix has decommitted from UCLA to pursue the new professional pathway for rising basketball stars.

Nix joins fellow top recruits Jalen Green and Isaiah Todd, who both chose the new program over collegiate offers. Nix is the first to decommit from a signed letter of intent, and he is expected to earn $300,000 while playing a limited amount of games.

As the news became public, Yahoo’s Chris Haynes tweeted that Green, who is projected to be the 2021 No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft, has signed a memorabilia deal with the trading card company Upper Deck. According to Haynes, Green is the third player to sign a memorabilia contract directly out of high school, joining LeBron James and Dwight Howard.

College Athletes Compensation Changes

While more high school players are planning on skipping school to make money, a working group presented a list of possible changes to the NCAA’s name, image and likeness rules to the organization’s board of governors on Tuesday.

Recommendations include allowing players to make money through modeling and advertisements, so long as the college isn’t referenced and student-athletes avoid marketing products that conflict with NCAA legislation, such as sports betting. The recommendations also note that athletes would be allowed to hire an agent to seek out deals outside of pro sports, according to ESPN’s Dan Murphy. Student-athletes would also be required to disclose all endorsement contracts to their athletic department.

A vote on new NIL rules isn’t expected until January 2021.