GREAT TEW, ENGLAND — TKO’s Mark Shapiro isn’t buying the talk of bubbles in sports team and media rights valuations.

“Two of the most popular misconceptions over the last five years are that sports has hit a bubble and sports rights have hit a bubble,” the president and COO of TKO Group Holdings tells Front Office Sports ahead of the IMG-RedBird Summit 2025.

He points to recent NFL and NBA franchise valuations—the 49ers at $8.5 billion, the Bears at $8.8 billion, the Lakers at $10 billion and the Giants at more than that—and says it’s clear the market hasn’t hit a wall. 

As for media rights, Shapiro hits back at the notion that Paramount overpaid for UFC’s U.S. media rights through the seven-year, $7.7 billion deal reached last month. TKO Group owns UFC, WWE, Professional Bull Riders, and IMG, a sports marketing agency.

“The whole topic is absurd,” he says. “Did Rupert Murdoch overpay when he got the NFL for Fox?”

The Paramount deal, he says, was simply a reflection of UFC’s market value. “The UFC was in high demand, I’ll put it that way. You’re going to pay what you need to pay if you really want to get the asset.”

For Shapiro, it’s not just about individual deals or valuations. It’s the bigger picture of what makes sports uniquely valuable. 

“Sports is the last bastion of unifying content in this world,” he tells FOS.

That conviction underpins TKO’s aggressive strategy. The company has shifted UFC’s business away from the $80 pay-per-view model and toward broader distribution on Paramount+, where CBS plans to use the fights as premium content to attract subscribers.

“Pay-per-view is gone with UFC, no question about it,” Shapiro says. “Pay-per-view is one of the reasons boxing has slipped back over the last couple decades. Prices got out of control. This is going to be an enormous boost.”

Moving away from pay-per-view hasn’t made it any easier to solve one of sports’ longest-running headaches: late-night finishes. Fans complain when marquee bouts end after 1 a.m. on the East Coast, but Shapiro says there’s no perfect solution.

“Yes, it can be improved,” he says. “But there is no magic serum that will be the elixir that fixes this. Go earlier, and the West Coast takes a hit. Go later, the East Coast suffers. You’re just trying to capture as much of the audience as you can.”

On the business side, TKO has plenty on its plate. WWE’s Raw is roughly nine months into its Netflix run. UFC will shift to CBS and Paramount+ in January. Zuffa Boxing launches in 2026 with 12–16 fights annually, plus a handful of global “super fights.” And IMG—which TKO recently acquired—is overseeing media deals for UFC’s international rights, which TKO chose not to sell as part of one large package in tandem with its U.S. rights.

“We have about 150 different deals around the world with various countries and territories, and roughly a third of those come up for expiration per year,” Shapiro tells FOS. 

That is the thesis for why TKO acquired IMG, he says. “They are the best in the industry when it comes to media distribution.”

If TKO didn’t have IMG in its portfolio, the company might have done an overall global deal for UFC’s media rights. “Netflix was certainly interested in a global deal, and various other platforms were too,” he says.

But with IMG, TKO knew there were better ways to monetize and build its audience than simply selling global media rights to one partner.

“Whether it’s [Latin America], Brazil, Korea, or Australia, these deals are coming up, and we intend to maximize that,” he says. “There will be individual deals, and there will be some companies that want to buy four, five, or even 10 territories. We’re open for business.”

Meanwhile, the company has doubled its dividend and launched a $1 billion share repurchase program. “Our compass is guided by what’s best for long-term, sustainable growth,” Shapiro says.

That compass must point toward what’s best for shareholders. Despite President Trump’s recent push to shift reporting rules from required quarterly reports to twice yearly for public companies, Shapiro is focused on the fundamentals.

“Until anything changes, it’s business as usual,” he tells FOS. “We have quarterly earnings calls, we talk to analysts and investors daily, and we focus on being transparent—so they can understand what we are doing and model the long-term growth of this business. Reporting every quarter also helps us continue the narrative.”

Editors’ note: RedBird IMI, in which RedBird Capital Partners is a joint venture partner, is the primary investor in Front Office Sports.

Gen Z doesn’t want a cocktail, they want a kettlebell—and that cultural shift has led to health and fitness M&A activity as dealmakers seek to cash in on the trend.

Investment bank Houlihan Lokey’s latest fitness market report says activity has been “robust” this year, particularly with regard to deals for high-value, low-price gym chains like Planet Fitness and Crunch. There have been 44 total transactions worth a combined $2.1 billion, according to the report. That half-year total value is already higher than the figures for four of the past six full years, the report says. 

Jeremy Hirsch, a director at Houlihan Lokey, tells Front Office Sports that “2025 is probably the biggest M&A year ever in fitness. Period, full stop.”

It’s not just that there’s been activity, but that the specific deals that have happened are “marquee transactions,” the report says. 

Examples include the April acquisition of a majority stake in Crunch by private-equity firm Leonard Green & Partners, TSG Consumer Partners’ purchase in May of EoS Fitness, Bay Club’s June deal for 425 Fitness, and the late July sale of CycleBar and Rumble to Extraordinary Brands by Xponential Fitness.

The surge reflects more than investor appetite, according to Hirsch; it’s cultural momentum as consumers seek to diversify their fitness routines.

“No one’s really talking about Peloton anymore,” he says. “The reality is, especially for the younger generation—Gen Z—they value experiences, community, and getting out of the house.”

The data backs up the idea that people are no longer sticking to the at-home exercise bike as they did during the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2024, San Francisco–based exercise-tracking app Strava saw a 25% increase in uploads of weight-training activities by women, while uploads of yoga or Pilates activities by men increased 15%, according to the report. The increased activity has led Strava to get in on the M&A game—in April, it bought U.K. tech company Runna, and in May it acquired The Breakaway, a training app for cyclists.

“We continue to see more of those integrated performance apps into workouts,” Hirsch tells FOS. “People want to know that what they’re doing is working.”

Hirsch says more people are taking their health into their own hands, pointing to recent research showing that the percentage of U.S. adults who say they drink alcohol is the lowest it’s been in decades, if not ever. In lieu of after-work drinks, people are networking while going for walks or working out. While at-home fitness still has a place, it’s mostly as a convenience play.

“Maybe you’re working from home and you want to squeeze something in,” he says. 

From an investment standpoint, Hirsch estimates the fitness market is already 85% consolidated, with most of the current action centered on large-scale players. That means the next major wave of exits likely won’t come until the early 2030s, when today’s private-equity buyers cycle out. Not every investor is cut out for it, because clubs demand consistent capital expenditures, and, as Hirsch put it, “the moment your club starts to feel old and tired, you’re toast.”

Still, there remain smaller plays that will eventually be up for grabs, and new players will always enter the market. Given strong membership trends (memberships at fitness facilities increased 5.8% from 2023 to 2024, according to the Health & Fitness Association), upselling opportunities at gym chains, and cultural tailwinds at its back, the fitness industry appears primed to stay hot in the deal market for years to come.

“People want to get out of the house, people want to go to the gym,” Hirsch tells FOS. “It’s becoming a bigger part of lifestyle and personality.”

Massachusetts is the latest state to take aim at Kalshi, filing a lawsuit Friday that claims the company’s sports event contracts are indistinguishable from traditional sports bets offered by licensed operators, in violation of state law.

The suit from Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell, filed Sept. 12 in Suffolk Superior Court, says Kalshi “disguises its sports wagering offerings as ‘event contracts’ offered on a ‘prediction market.’” The suit also alleges that Kalshi has failed to implement necessary protections that are required by licensed operators—for example, Kalshi allows anyone 18 or older to trade on its platform, while the legal age for online sports betting in Massachusetts is 21; and it does not adequately provide self-limiting options, such as maximum deposits or wagers.

Massachusetts is one of 38 U.S. states in which some form of sports betting is legal, having legalized the practice in 2022.

The AG is asking the court to rule that Kalshi is operating an illegal sports betting platform. It also seeks monetary relief “in an amount to be determined at trial,” and wants Kalshi “permanently” barred from offering sports event contracts in the state. Additionally, the AG wants a court order that Kalshi must “cease offering sports wagering in Massachusetts while the lawsuit is pending.”

“Sports wagering comes with significant risk of addiction and financial loss and must be strictly regulated to mitigate public health consequences,” Campbell said in a statement accompanying the lawsuit. “This lawsuit will ensure that if Kalsi wants to be in the sports gaming business in Massachusetts, they must obtain a license and follow our laws.”

A Kalshi spokesperson said in an emailed statement that the company “offers its users a fair, transparent, federally-regulated, and nationwide marketplace.”

“Rather than engage in dialogue with Kalshi as many other states have done, Massachusetts is trying to block Kalshi’s innovations by relying on outdated laws and ideas,” the statement said. “Prediction markets are a critical innovation of the 21st century, and all Americans should be able to access them. We are proud to be the company that has pioneered this technology and stand ready to defend it once again in a court of law.”

Kalshi’s event contracts are available in all 50 states after it self-certified with a federal regulator called the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. 

Massachusetts is not the first state to target Kalshi over its sports event contracts. Regulators in at least seven states have issued cease-and-desist letters, which has resulted in Kalshi filing lawsuits against three states: Nevada, New Jersey, and Maryland. Kalshi scored early victories in Nevada and New Jersey but suffered a preliminary setback in Maryland. Kalshi has also been sued by Native American tribes in California and Wisconsin.

In court, Kalshi has maintained there is a distinction between its sports event contracts and sports betting: Traditional wagers see users betting against “the house”—casinos or sportsbooks that set the odds and profit when bettors lose—while sports-prediction markets offer nationwide marketplaces where users trade against one another.

Kalshi, a prediction-market platform that originally offered event contracts on questions such as whether there would be a recession this year or how high the temperature would rise in a given day in New York City, started offering sports  in January.

It recently expanded its football-related offerings to include certain props and other forms of event contracts that resemble traditional sports betting. The company recorded hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume during Week 1 of the NFL season.

The suit comes as Kalshi faces increased competition in the marketplace. Polymarket, another prediction markets platform that had been barred from operating in the U.S. under a 2022 settlement with the Biden-era CFTC, is now allowed back into the country, although it has not yet relaunched.

Other players have also entered the scene, including Underdog Sports, which earlier this month announced it will offer sports event contracts in 16 states through a deal with Crypto.com. Elsewhere, major pro leagues and traditional sportsbooks are very much aware of the growth in prediction markets; FanDuel recently announced a deal with derivatives exchange CME Group to enter prediction markets, although sports will not be part of the offerings, at least to start.