Tom Brady is a man obsessed.

Sources say Brady and play-by-play partner Kevin Burkhardt have cycled through a full 17-game schedule of practice games before making their regular-season debut with Fox Sports. The 47-year-old legend is as fixated on succeeding in his new TV career as he was on the field with the Patriots.

“I hear Brady is approaching this job like he did his NFL career. Very focused,” says one source familiar with Brady’s preparations for the 2024 season. 

That’s good news for Fox as Brady is set to debut during the network’s broadcast of the Cowboys vs. Browns matchup on Sept. 8. Given Brady’s résumé as a seven-time Super Bowl winner and the presence of the Cowboys, the NFL’s biggest draw, I can’t think of a more eagerly anticipated sportscasting debut. 

Start with his eye-popping, 10-year, $375 million deal with Fox. His $37.5 million a year is more than twice as much what CBS’s Tony Romo and ESPN’s Troy Aikman make (both $18 million). Then there’s the history factor. 

Media-wise, this is the NFL equivalent of Michael Jordan or LeBron James walking straight from the hardwood into the broadcast booth. Unfortunately, the TV track record of superstars from his rarefied atmosphere is mixed.

Joe Montana, a four-time Super Bowl winner with the 49ers, lasted only one disappointing season with NBC before quitting TV in 1995. Aikman, a three-time Super Bowl winner with the Cowboys, is the most successful example. But Aikman had the luxury of working with veterans Cris Collinsworth and Joe Buck when he entered the TV game in 2001, and, while Aikman was a great player, he was not in Brady’s tier. Romo is a TV superstar. But his playing career pales next to Brady’s (Romo won only two playoff games, relative to an astounding 35 for Brady). Adding to the high-wire act: Brady will operate in a two-person booth with Burkhardt. Sure, he will have veterans Erin Andrews and Tom Rinaldi as sideline reporters. But there will be no veteran color analyst alongside him to ease his transition into the booth.  

In hiring Brady, Fox bought itself another major problem. They had to demote the well-regarded Greg Olsen—who expertly called Super Bowl LVII with Burkhart—to second-string status. The former tight end has made it crystal-clear he wants to be a No. 1 analyst, whether at Fox or another network. Given the volatile state of NFL television partners (with ESPN replacing the longtime hosts of Sunday NFL Countdown and Monday Night Countdown in successive seasons), who’s to say another network won’t raid Fox for Olsen—and soon?

The Long and Winding Road

It felt like we’d never get to this point. Fox announced its monster deal with Brady 28 months ago in May 2022 (Brady took the 2023 season off as a gap year). 

He’s no ordinary employee. Brady gets an almost presidential-level of security when he visits the Fox studio lot on Pico Boulevard in Los Angeles. My sources indicate there are no meet-and-greets with Brady as he walks down the halls. It’s completely shut down to maximize Brady’s privacy and make him comfortable with Fox producers and executives.

To get a close read on Brady’s TV prospects, I talked to two savvy former Fox executives. Given time to acclimate, Big Ten Network cofounder Bob Thompson predicts Brady will do well. It’s in Fox’s strategic interest to support him since Brady and Burkhardt are scheduled to call Super Bowl LIX from New Orleans on Feb. 9. Brady was also hired as an “ambassador” for parent company Fox Corp., so his overall contribution to the bottom line could be felt in the boardroom as much as it is the TV ratings. What advertiser wouldn’t feel compelled to sign on the dotted line if Brady joined a sales pitch as the closer?

“The microscope will be on him and Fox has the Super Bowl this year. Sure, there’ll probably be some shaky moments early on but that is to be expected,” Thompson tells me. “As for Olsen, he’s a great insurance policy for Fox in case Brady decides calling games isn’t his thing. All the other No. 1 analyst roles are tied up for a number of years. So, for now, staying put is Olsen’s best option.”

Yes, it stinks for Olsen. But ex-Fox executive turned media consultant Patrick Crakes also thinks Olsen is better off remaining diplomatic, rather than acting resentful about losing his No. 1 gig. “Doesn’t seem to me that Greg is in a hurry to go anywhere, and he appears to be playing a long game here,” Crakes said. “Overall, [Olsen’s] been the epitome of a classy team player and my guess is he’s accumulated a load of goodwill. I’ll add that the production team at Fox Sports is probably the best in the biz, top to bottom, when it comes to football and, barring a clear number-one role somewhere else, why would you leave such an environment if you’re him?”

Brady was smart to take his time and prepare. I’ve seen too many former athletes flop on TV because they thought they could just tell a few war stories and wing it. But building strong first impressions of Brady will be key. The ebullient Romo came out of the box fast—and was the toast of TV. Former ESPN Monday Night Football analyst Jason Witten, meanwhile, was a gaffe machine during his only season in the booth in 2018 (“He pulls another rabbit out of his head.”). Witten was mocked mercilessly on social media—and never recovered.

A Complex Dance

As first reported by ESPN, the NFL will impose severe restrictions on Brady’s access to teams if his deal to become a minority owner of the Raiders is approved. With that in mind,  Brady’s career as an NFL broadcaster could be short-lived. (ProFootballTalk suggested Fox solve the problem with a three-person booth of Brady, Burkhardt, and Olsen). Even if he lasts only a season or two in the booth, I hear Fox executives would be happy they shot for the moon with Brady. Especially if Olsen is around to return to the No. 1 job.

So how will Brady handle the pressure? Given he’s the greatest clutch quarterback of all time, my money’s on Tom Terrific. Look for Fox to pull a monster TV number for his big debut.