Max Verstappen and Red Bull are realistic about the final stretch of the 2026 Formula One season. They know the title is out of reach. 

Verstappen started out the year slowly, with just one podium in his first seven races. Entering the Austin Grand Prix this weekend, the sixth-to-last race of the year, Verstappen sits in fourth in the drivers’ championship, 119 points behind first-place Kimi Antonelli of Mercedes. Red Bull trails Mercedes by 246 points in the constructors’ championship.

But the four-time drivers’ champion has recently returned to form, signaling a possible resurgence next year. Over the last three straight race weekends in Azerbaijan, Malaysia (Bahrain Grand Prix replacement), and Singapore, Verstappen has two race wins, a sprint victory, and a runner-up finish. 

The turnaround was triggered by multiple upgrades: First in May before the Miami Grand Prix, which helped Verstappen secure his first podium of the year; then again in Austria, which also helped push the car into more podium finishes; before a final major upgrade ahead of Azerbaijan that led to the wins at the last two races.

“It’s been an incredible tripleheader for us,” Verstappen said last week after the Singapore Grand Prix. “Big turnaround for the team.”

It’s a very different tune compared to earlier this year, when Verstappen’s future not only at Red Bull, but in motorsport, was in question. 

“Privately, I’m very happy,” Verstappen, 29, told BBC Sport in March. “You also wait for 24 races. This time it’s 22. But normally 24. And then you just think about, is it worth it? Or do I enjoy being more at home with my family? Seeing my friends more when you’re not enjoying your sport?”

He said the team’s poor start—including the significant overhaul at Red Bull—wasn’t the reason for his sudden reflection. But he’s since shut down speculation he may leave soon.

In August, Verstappen signed an extension to remain at Red Bull until 2030. His previous deal ran until 2028, though he reportedly had a clause that allowed him to leave the team after this year.

Verstappen said the recent upgrades weren’t the catalyst for his decision to extend with the team he’s been with for more than a decade. That makes sense since Red Bull technical director Pierre Waché told RacingNews365 that “close to nothing” of their 2026 car will move over to the 2027 version.

But that doesn’t mean the final six races won’t matter. Red Bull will have time to study the car under F1’s new regulations that started this year, carrying over knowledge and momentum into 2027.

“I hope that we could just, every single weekend, have a good time, try to fight for that win,” Verstappen said. “That’s the only thing that we can do also heading into next year—to learn about the car and have some fun out there.”

Pushing Through in the Middle East

The Austin GP will be the first race where Antonelli can clinch the drivers’ championship. But that’s unlikely, as he’ll need to win the race while teammate George Russell finishes no higher than ninth and Ferrari’s Lewis Hamilton no better than fifth. 

That calculus assumes every F1 race remains on the calendar, which was unclear for a while, given the last two race weekends are in Qatar (Nov. 27–29) and Abu Dhabi (Dec. 4–6), as the U.S.-Iran war persists in the Middle East. F1 canceled races in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain earlier in the year, before moving Bahrain to Malaysia earlier this month.

F1 was expected to announce in mid-October whether it would move the final two races, and CEO Stefano Domenicali said in July the series could add a race in Europe to finish the year. However, ESPN reported last week that F1 will likely keep the races on the calendar—without making a formal announcement.

On Tuesday, FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem insisted the Middle East races will continue, saying the danger in the area has been overblown.

“One thing I would say, I have my children there [in the UAE],” Ben Sulayem said during an event in the U.K. “You think I would leave them there, and I’m here now with you?

“But does this say that there is nothing going to happen? I cannot predict with this. I can only tell you today that there is nothing and the two races are going to happen.”